Contrary to what says the press – local and international-, Brazil is not necessarily on the verge to be Covid-19’s apocalyptic Armageddon.
The media, particularly in the countries hardest hit by the pandemic, seems excited to point out Brazil as the second country in the world with the highest number of people infected and the sixth in number of deaths.
OK, the absolute figures of this nefarious ranking are true.
But real truth is not always found in absolute data, but in the relative view of the facts, where proportionality puts things in their proper places.
It is obvious that what happens in Brazil cannot be minimized in terms of the suffering of the victims of Covid-19 and their families. But the truth is that up to now Brazil is far from being an epicenter of the disease.
The absolute numbers emphasize that Brazil is the country most affected by the new coronavirus in South America. What’s new on that? This is an obvious statement, for a very simple reason: Brazil has about half the area and population of the subcontinent. The other half being divided into 10 countries and a French department.
The population of Brazil equals that of Germany, France and Italy combined. Together, these European countries recorded (as of May 25) a total of about 69,000 Covid-19 deaths . In Brazil, up to the same date, deceased reached 23,473.
What is the most worrying situation, that of Brazil or, for example, that of Belgium, with 9,312 fatal cases? Brazil, with 112 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants; or Belgium with 815.3?
The proportional view reveals, for example, that in the Serenissima Republic of San Marino, the situation is even worse: 1,213 deceased per 100 thousand inhabitants.
The Covid-19 disaster, so far, has mainly focused on the developed countries of the West. By May 25, deaths per hundred thousand inhabitants are, in fact, frightening in that part of the world. Let’s see: San Marino (1213), Belgium (815.3), Andorra (662), Spain (574.4), Italy (544), United Kingdom (555.2), France (424.4) Sweden (395, 7), Holland (338.3), Ireland (330.9), United States (305), Switzerland (224.6), Canada (176.6), Portugal (129.4). Recalling that on the same day, the index in Brazil was 112.
Inside Brazil
Little attention has been paid to the fact that Covid-19 slightly affected the South, the Midwest of Brazil as well as the state of Minas Gerais. Put together this part of Brazil occupies an area of 2.7 million square kilometers, larger than the combined area of Spain, France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland and the United Kingdom, and with a population larger than that of all France.
If they were independent countries, these states (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, Federal District, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais) – with an average mortality rate for Covid-19 around 1, 4 for every hundred thousand inhabitants – would stand out in the international ‘ranking’ of lethality of the disease as examples to be followed.
An interesting point to note: the current hot areas of coronavids in Brazil are exactly the ones that had Carnival festivities in February (Rio, São Paulo, Northeast states and Manaus), which atracted hundreds of thousands of young visitors coming from Western Europe, where authorities were then getting ready for an outbreak of the new virus.
This type of statistics should not be celebrated, but it will be useful for journalists, when reporting the situation in Brazil. Disliking Bolsonaro is understandable, but omitting information that could harm Brazil is another thing.
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